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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
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Showing 1411 to 1415 news of total 6871 |
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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