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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
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Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
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Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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