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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Sunday, 26 May 19
SUPRAMAX: A LIMITED ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED, WITH THE UPCOMING INDONESIAN HOLIDAYS SLOWING COAL MOVEMENTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The past week marked one of the busier periods for Capesizes this year. With a subdued start due to a public holiday in Singapore on M ...
Wednesday, 22 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The ship repair sector is showing a constant and gradual increase on the workload throughout the past months, with almost all the shipyards worldwi ...
Saturday, 18 May 19
SUPRAMAX: 56,000DWT OPEN PANJANG FIXING AT $10,500 FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, AND REDELIVERY CHINA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The market continues to ebb and flow with a generally positive up trend. The Capesize 5TC opened with upward momentum from last week&r ...
Friday, 17 May 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 16 May 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV TRADING AROUND US$ 9,000 BSS S.CHINA DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
This volatile segment is trying to find a clear direction from the present US$ 12,000/day earnings for standard units says Fearnleys W ...
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Showing 1396 to 1400 news of total 6871 |
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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