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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 12 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This year’s tanker S&P activity keeps edging higher compared to the same period in 2018. Year to date we have seen some 143 ships, rangin ...
Tuesday, 11 June 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SET AT $81.48 PER TON IN JUNE, DOWN 15.66 PERCENT YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 10 June 19
CONSECUTIVE OWNERS OF CARGO: WHO HOLDS TITLE AND THE RIGHT TO SUE? - COLIN BIGGERS & PAISLEY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In Tritton Resources Pty Ltd v Ever Rock Navigation S.A. [2019] FCA 276, the Federal Court considered the application of ...
Monday, 10 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,305,000 MT OF MIN 5600 KCAL/KG NCV COAL FOR SEPT 2019 TO DEC 2021
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 435,000 MT (per year) of max 5,600 kcal/kg N ...
Sunday, 09 June 19
SUPRAMAX: ASIA LOST GROUND; THE INDIAN OCEAN SAW SLOWER ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued in an unusually steady ascent last week. With no major news in the market, each day improved on the last, breakin ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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