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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 15 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-TONNER, OPEN QINGDAO, WAS BOOKED TO REDELIVER IN EAST COAST INDIA AT $6,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market closed on a quiet Friday last week after a few hectic days of mid-week trading. Trade routes from Brazil to the Far East we ...
Friday, 14 June 19
PANAMAX: OUTLOOK IS MIXED - FERNLEYS
Capesize
Sentiment changed to a more nervous tone as pacific cargo volumes failed to deliver as expected, however latest activity indicates res ...
Friday, 14 June 19
ELECTRONIC (PAPERLESS) TRADING - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Electronic Shipping Solutions: Bolero International Ltd, E-Title Authority Pte Ltd, Global Share S.A. (edoxOnline platfor ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 140,000 MT OF 4,600 NCV COAL FOR SEP. 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 140,000 MT of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg NCV coal ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
IMO 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO 1 JANUARY 2020 -HOW WILL THE CHANGES AFFECT REFINING AND SHIPPING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
We know that the IMO’s regulations represent the biggest step change the shipping industry has ever seen and the implications will be felt th ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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