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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 07 June 19
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR 1.87 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JULY - OCTOBER 2019 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,700,000 to 1,870,000 Metric Tons ...
Wednesday, 05 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first semester of 2019 started as a fairly positive semester for the offshore sector whilst there was a recovery on crude prices, as well as a ...
Tuesday, 04 June 19
MARPOL ANNEX VI - SULPHUR CAP 2020 - DEMYSTIFYING THE FONAR - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Fuel Oil Non-Availability Report (FONAR) is primarily a discretionary tool for a Member State to lessen the breach of MAR ...
Monday, 03 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 TONNER OPEN NORTH CHINA, FIXING A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY SOUTHEAST ASIA AT $7,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued its steady ascent over the past week to improved levels. The TC average opened the previous week at $12,243 and c ...
Wednesday, 29 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Reflecting on the first quarter of 2019, the product tanker market was healthy, with average earnings significantly up compared to the first quarte ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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