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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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