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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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