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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was a fairly busy week in the dry S&P market. Despite the ease of Capesize rates which impacted Panamaxes as well, interest from potential b ...
Sunday, 28 July 19
ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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