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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market i ...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
NORDEN HAS BEEN AWARDED A 3-YEAR CONTRACT FOR THE TRANSPORTATION OF COAL FROM INDONESIA TO HONG KONG
NORDEN has been awarded a 3-year contract with a power company in Hong Kong for the transportation of coal from Indonesia to Hong Kong.
...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
THE AUGUST 2019 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS THE FIRST MONTHLY GAIN SINCE AUGUST 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Monday, 19 August 19
INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, A 82,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY CHINA VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY JAPAN, IN THE MID $16,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market was buoyant in both basins this week, posting gains across the board. After bottoming out the previous week, rates ...
Sunday, 11 August 19
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000DWT VESSEL OPEN KEMAMAN FIXED FOR TWO TO THREE LADEN LEGS, REDELIVERY SINGAPORE-JAPAN, AT $12,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
With typhoon Lekima gathering pace, numerous China ports were closed by the end of the week and will likely be for two to three days. ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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