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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
...
Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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