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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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