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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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