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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing ...
Sunday, 13 October 19
INDONESIA: PANAMAX VESSELS OPEN SOUTH CHINA WERE REPORTEDLY FIXED AT $14,000 LEVEL, WITH REDELIVERY BACK IN CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market managed to find a floor and rally a little this week after several weeks of declines. While the West Australia to ...
Friday, 11 October 19
INDIAN MINERS REJECT PLAN TO LINK NATIONAL COAL INDEX TO FOREIGN PRICES - REUTERS
India’s miners are rejecting a government proposal to establish a national coal index that would be linked to international prices, documents ...
Friday, 11 October 19
THE OCTOBER BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DECLINES TO LOWEST SINCE OCTOBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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