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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 17 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country’s ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
INDIA CALLS FOR A RESET OF CLIMATE DEBATE ON COAL AS A FUEL - LIVEMINT
India on Tuesday called for a reset on climate debate on coal as a fuel, in the backdrop of India becoming one of the top renewable energy producer ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
LESSONS LEARNT FROM CREW INJURED IN HEAVY WEATHER - UK P&I CLUB COMMENTS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Stuart Edmonston, Loss Prevention at UK P&I Club, discusses an incident in which crew were injured whilst on deck in ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In perhaps the most interesting market conditions of the past years, the tanker and the dry bulk industry have created a positive sentiment with re ...
Tuesday, 15 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country's Co ...
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Showing 1311 to 1315 news of total 6871 |
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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