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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SINGAPORE'S APEX TO LAUNCH LOW-SULFUR FUEL OIL CONTRACT AHEAD OF NEW SHIPPING RULES - REUTERS
Singapore-based Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) will launch a low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) futures contract on Friday aimed at helping shipping and ener ...
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Showing 1306 to 1310 news of total 6871 |
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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