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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 04 November 19
PANAMAX: WEAKER SENTIMENTS CONTINUED FROM LAST WEEK, WITH RATES FURTHER SOFTENING IN BOTH BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market meandered slightly upwards this week before giving back much of its gains mid-week. Opening the week at $24,945, t ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
U.S. COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS SCHEDULED TO SHUT - REUTERS
U.S. power companies expect to retire or convert from coal to gas over 13,800 megawatts (MW) of coal-fired plants in 2019 after shutting over 13,30 ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
SE ASIA MAY BECOME NET FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTER IN COMING YEARS - IEA
Southeast Asia is set to become a key driver of world energy trends over the next 20 years as its energy demand grows at twice the global average, ...
Monday, 28 October 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA RATES REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE WITH THE NORTH LACKING FRESH ENQUIRY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The end of the week brought about a small increase in sentiment heading into a long weekend for some regions. After sustaining a drop ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
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Showing 1296 to 1300 news of total 6871 |
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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