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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 13 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The improvements seen in the dry bulk market during the unexpectedly strong Q3 brought enthusiasm and optimism for a last quarter rally. Indeed as ...
Tuesday, 12 November 19
COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS SLIP 18 PC TO 51 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Indian Ports Association (IPA), which maintains cargo data handled by these 12 ports, in its recent report, said "percentage variation fro ...
Monday, 11 November 19
EMINENT MARITIME ORGANIZATIONS AND INDIVIDUALS WERE HONORED
SHIPTEK 2019 Anchors in Greece for its 12th edition.
Eminent Maritime Organizations and Individuals were honored
Greec ...
Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate ...
Monday, 04 November 19
COAL INDIA'S OCTOBER PRODUCTION MAY FALL 20% - PTI
Coal India’s production in October is likely to be 19-20 per cent lower at about 40 million tonne, as compared to 49.77 million tonne produce ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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