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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 20 November 19
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE POSTS 66% SURGE IN Q1 SALEABLE COAL OUTPUT - REUTERS
Australian coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd reported on Tuesday a 66% jump in saleable coal production in the first quarter, as output ramped up at ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
THE IMO AND THE PRICE OF GAS OR THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANISATION'S SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT FOR MARINE FUEL OIL ON THE PRICE OF GAS - KING & SPALDING
The main bunker fuel for ships is High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO, with sulphur up to 3.5% m/m (mass by mass)). This will all change on 1 January 2020 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, wh ...
Monday, 18 November 19
CHINA RECORDS STABLE COAL PRODUCTION IN JAN-OCT: XINHUA
China’s raw coal output registered stable growth in the first 10 months, while its imports remained robust, official data showed.
...
Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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