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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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