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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 22 November 19
UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL COAL MARKET PERSISTED IN 3Q19 - ADARO
Uncertainty in thermal coal market persisted in 3Q19, mainly due to the actions, or inactions, of China in setting policies for global coal market. ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CIL TO DEVELOP 55 NEW COAL MINES IN NEXT 5 YEARS: COAL MINISTER
State-owned CIL will develop 55 new coal mines and expand 193 existing ones in the next five years, Parliament was informed. The company is also un ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
4TH DEEP OFFSHORE WEST AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
4th Deep Offshore West Africa Congress 2020
17 Janaury 2020
Accra, Ghana
Press Release: Following the great succ ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
INDONESIA PLANS TO KEEP $70/T COAL PRICE CAP FOR PLN, DMO - REUTERS
Indonesia’s energy minister Arifin Tasrif said his ministry plans to maintain a price cap on coal being sold to state electricity utility, PT ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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