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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 30 November 19
PANAMAX: LEVELS IMPROVED IN THE PACIFIC MARKET TOO WITH $11,000 BEING CONCLUDED ON AN 81,000DWT SHIP FOR AN INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIP - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market has been well supported over the past week, led primarily by the Atlantic Basin. After bottoming last week, sentiment was s ...
Friday, 29 November 19
FITCHRATINGS MAINTAINS NEGATIVE 2020 OUTLOOK ON SHIPPING, AS TIGHTER SUPPLY HELPS, BUT SOFTER DEMAND DRAGS
Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Negative
We maintain a negative sector outlook for global shipping because of the forecast slowdown of ...
Friday, 29 November 19
INDONESIA PRODUCES 390 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN JAN-SEPT: MINISTER - REUTERS
Indonesia’s production of coal for the January-September period was 390 million tonnes, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif s ...
Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third qu ...
Tuesday, 26 November 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS 1 JANUARY 2020 GLOBAL CUT IN SULPHUR IN SHIP'S FUEL OIL LOOMS: IMO
“IMO 2020” requirements for ships to cut sulphur oxide emissions enter into effect in just over one month’s time. This will signi ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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