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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 04 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry bulk freight rates rebounded last week, a development that came as a relief following the recent negative sentiment that prevailed in the marke ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
INDONESIA REVIEWING RULES MANDATING COAL SALES TO LOCAL BUYERS: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia is reviewing rules that require coal miners to sell a portion of their coal to local buyers, a government official said on Monday, as sup ...
Tuesday, 03 December 19
STABILITY AND COMPATIBILITY OF VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL OILS - GARD
In order to meet increasing restrictions on the sulphur content in marine fuel as defined by MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 14.1.3, the characteristics ...
Monday, 02 December 19
COAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA UP BY 164.58 MT IN 5 YEARS - BUSINESS LINE
Raw coal production in the country has increased from 567.77 million tons (MT) in 2013-14 to 730.35 MT in 2018-19, Union Coal and Parliamentary Aff ...
Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 Dec ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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