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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 12 December 19
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.28 MILLION TONS OF MIN.4,400 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,280,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Wednesday, 11 December 19
PANAMAX: THE MARKET REMAINED FIRM IN THE PACIFIC, WITH INCREASED ACTIVITY NOTED IN KEY AREAS, SUCH AS INDONESIA - ALLIED
Capesize – Positive momentum was resumed this past week, with earnings mak-ing some gains once again. This rising pattern was reflected in th ...
Tuesday, 10 December 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS IMO 2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CAP LOOMS - STANDARD CLUB
With less than a month to go for the impending IMO 2020 global sulphur cap, the club has started witnessing dispute cases relating to the measureme ...
Monday, 09 December 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO LTD IS INVITING OFFERS FOR MIN 3700 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for 160,000 Tons steam coal.
Acco ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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