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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 17 December 19
BACK TO FUTURE FOR BUSH AS AUSTRALIA CONSIDERS MOVING AWAY FROM COAL NEWCASTLE - HERALD
Looking backwards could show the way forward for regional communities planning for a future beyond mining.
One of Australia’s ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.01 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points, down 0.01 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Taiy ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
YEAR 2019: IT IS LOOKING SET THAT THIS YEAR WILL BE ONE OF THE SLOWEST IN TERMS OF DRY BULK NEWBUILDING ACTIVITY - ALLIED
With just two weeks remaining before 2019 comes to an end, it is now looking set that this year will be one of the slowest in terms of dry bulk new ...
Monday, 16 December 19
ULTRAMAX: A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, FOR RE-DELIVERY TO CHINA AT $11,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was one-way traffic for the Capesize market this past week, with all routes giving up value. While downward momentum may have slowe ...
Monday, 16 December 19
THE OUTLOOK FOR U.S. THERMAL COAL IS INCREASINGLY STRESSED - MOODY'S
- Slowing global economic growth, trade tensions will continue to exert influence
- Coal's secular decline will persist in 2020
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
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