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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling t ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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