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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 28 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasing ...
Saturday, 28 December 19
CHINESE INDUSTRIAL CITY TO FURTHER CUT COAL CONSUMPTION - XINHUA
Harbin, capital city of Heilongjiang Province in China’s northeastern industrial heartland, is planning to further reduce its coal consumptio ...
Friday, 27 December 19
MISERY LOOMS OVER TOP COAL SHIPPERS AS CHINA TO BUY LESS IN 2020 BLOOMBERG
China isn’t cutting back on consumption of the most-polluting fossil fuel just yet, but it is set to reduce imports.
The world ...
Thursday, 26 December 19
REVIEW OF 2019 AND OUTLOOK FOR 2020 - OPEC
Global economic growth slowed in 2019, impacted by a variety of challenges. Trade issues not only led to reduction in global final consumption but ...
Wednesday, 25 December 19
COVER FOR WAR AND TERRORISM RISKS, AND COVER IN RESPECT OF BIOLOGICAL AND BIO-CHEMICAL WEAPONS - 2020 POLICY YEAR: AMERICAN CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This Circular describes the arrangements which have been made to provide special cover for war and terrorism risks, and c ...
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Showing 1221 to 1225 news of total 6871 |
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
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