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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 25 December 19
EXHAUST GAS CLEANING SYSTEMS (SCRUBBER) GUIDANCE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a few weeks, IMO’s ‘global sulphur cap’ will take effect. The permitted levels of SOx in ship emissi ...
Wednesday, 25 December 19
INDONESIAN BUKIT ASAM TARGETS TO MINE 30 MLN T OF COAL IN 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesian state-owned coal miner PT Bukit Asam targets to produce around 30 million tonnes of coal in 2020, compared with an estimate of 28.5 mill ...
Wednesday, 25 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year in the shipping industry is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the dry bulk and tanker markets and how these performed ...
Monday, 23 December 19
VLSFO PRICING & AVAILABILITY NEEDS CAREFUL WATCHING - INTEGR8 FUELS
As we approach January 1st 2020 , the VLSFO price premium to HSFO has widened considerably
We are clearly well into the IMO 2020 transition; ch ...
Sunday, 22 December 19
NMDC DIVERSIFIES INTO COAL MINING - THE HINDU
Iron ore mining major NMDC has been allocated two coal blocks in Jharkhand for commercial mining by the Union Ministry of Coal.
Both ...
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Showing 1226 to 1230 news of total 6871 |
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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