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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 30 December 19
AUSTRALIAN MINERS HIT BY LOWEST THERMAL COAL PRICE IN MORE THAN A DECADE - THE GUARDIAN
Australian coal exporters have experienced the biggest annual drop in thermal coal prices in more than a decade during 2019, raising doubts about i ...
Monday, 30 December 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS RISE 4% TO 161.43 MT IN APRIL-NOVEMBER 2019 - PTI
The country’s coal imports registered an increase of 4.4 per cent to 161.43 million tonnes (MT) in the April-November period of the ongoing f ...
Sunday, 29 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Sunday, 29 December 19
IMO 2020 COMPLIANCE: IT'S UP TO US TO BE GOOD CITIZENS - IBIA
One of the concerns around implementation of the 0.50% sulphur limit has been, and continues to be, the need for effective enforcement to ensure a ...
Sunday, 29 December 19
AUSTRALIA SUFFERS WORST OF CHINA'S COAL CURBS AFTER EARLIER BOOM - BLOOMBERG
Australia is bearing the brunt of China’s year-end coal import restrictions, ceding market share to other exporters including Russia and Mong ...
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Showing 1216 to 1220 news of total 6871 |
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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