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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 08 January 20
WHAT IS BIMCO THINKING ABOUT 2020? - BIMCO
Every year, BIMCO considers what is in store for the shipping industry and for BIMCO in the coming years, while also reflecting on the year gone by ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
VINACOMIN SETS TO SELL 49 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2020 - VIETNAM NET
The Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited (Vinacomin) has set to sell 49 million tonnes of coal in 2020, a year-on-y ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE CUTS 18.95 MLN TONNES OF CAPACITY IN 2019 - XINHUA
North China’s Shanxi Province reduced its coal production capacity by 18.95 million tonnes by closing 18 coal mines in 2019.
A ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
JANUARY INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS US$ 0.37 MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Tuesday, 07 January 20
CLEANER AIR IN 2020: 0.5% SULPHUR CAP FOR SHIPS ENTERS INTO FORCE WORLDWIDE - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
From 1 January 2020, the maximum sulphur content of marine fuels is reduced to 0.5% (down from 3.5%) globally – reducing air pollution and pr ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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