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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
DRY BULK MARKET: "THIS IS NOT THE END OF COAL" SAYS IEA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A historic drop in coal-fired electricity generation will not sway global coal demand from its upward trajectory through to 2024, though growth wil ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bunker fuel is a commodity and, like all commodities, is produced and sold according to specifications. Bunkers are usual ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
NEW PRICING COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR CHINA'S COAL SECTOR - CHINA DIALOGUE
Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
VLCC
Escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, in addition to a continuing strong market, made for an interesting week, with rates firming ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- The University of Queensland
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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