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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 11 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA COAL RUNS, A 58,000DWT SHIP WAS RUMOURED FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, IN THE $4,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Closing out the first full trading week of 2020, the Capesize market is struggling to gain any solid positive upward traction. Opening ...
Friday, 10 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remains flat
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
...
Thursday, 09 January 20
NEW IMO LIFEBOAT REQUIREMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Three new compulsory IMO resolutions entered into force on 1 January 2020. These resolutions deal with the maintenance, t ...
Thursday, 09 January 20
INDIA'S NEW EASED MINING RULES TO ENHANCE FOREIGN PARTICIPATION IN COAL SECTOR: MINISTER
India’s cabinet has eased mining laws in a bid to attract foreign players to the domestic coal sector and reduce imports of the fuel, coal mi ...
Thursday, 09 January 20
SUPRAMAX: A NUMBER OF INDONESIAN ROUND TRIPS WERE REPORTED AT BELLOW USD 5,000 PD LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The Capesize market has hit new low's in the first week of the new year, with the West Australia route being fixed at USD 6.6 being ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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