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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 07 January 20
BHP EYES INDIA FOR COAL GROWTH AS CHINA DEMAND FLATLINES - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Australia’s largest miner, BHP, believes the long-term trajectory of the emerging economy of India and the acceleration of its steelmaking ou ...
Sunday, 05 January 20
BUNKER QUALITY CLAIMS IN 2020 - ISSUES TO CONSIDER - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In recent years the shipping industry has faced a significant number of bunker quality claims, most notably ari ...
Saturday, 04 January 20
SUPRAMAX: A 53,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY INDONESIA TRIP TO CHINA AT $4,000 AND A 58,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP TO THAILAND AT $5,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The New Year started with an erosion on pre-Christmas rates as the higher low sulphur fuel costs due to IMO 2020 affected levels. From ...
Thursday, 02 January 20
DMO 2020 PRICE SET FOR ELECTRICITY SECTOR - IAN WOLLFF
On the 26th December 2019, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) issued the decree No. 261.K/30.MEM/2019 about the States needs for c ...
Thursday, 02 January 20
SULPHUR 2020 COMPENDIUM - HOW ARE INDIVIDUAL PORT STATES EXPECTED TO REACT? - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With the new sulphur limits soon to be in force, Standard Club has been investigating the ways in which certain jurisdict ...
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Showing 1211 to 1215 news of total 6871 |
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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