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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 07 December 19
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL PRICE SURGE, WHILE OTHERS LANGUISH, IS TROUBLING - REUTERS
Coal prices around the world are gently sliding as demand from top importers such as China, India and even Europe remains subdued amid a so far mil ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL, THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX REMAINED IN POSITIVE MODE, DESPITE SOME AREAS LACKING FRESH ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week the Capesize market maintained healthy earnings, as an end of year surge took the Capesize 5TC back up to $25,202 by mid-wee ...
Friday, 06 December 19
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR DECEMBER INCREASES BY US 3 CENTS MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 December 19
IMO 2020 IS ABOUT TO GET REAL - GAVIN THOMPSON
As I write this edition of the APAC Energy Buzz from my desk in Singapore I can see ships. Lots of ships. No surprise given that Singapore is among ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
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