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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 02 December 19
GREENER LNG IS VITAL TO ASIA'S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
Asia struggles with the world’s worst air pollution. Delhi hit the headlines in November 2019 as levels spiked to such hazardous levels that ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA GAS & LNG CONFERENCE 2020
5th East & Southern Africa Gas & LNG Conference 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th East & Southern Afri ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH DEEPWATER EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
5th Deepwater East & Southern Africa Congress 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th Deepwater East & Southern ...
Sunday, 01 December 19
6TH CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY CONGRESS 2020
6th Central & Eastern Europe Nuclear Industry Congress 2020
January 20-21 | Prague, Czech Republic
Overview
6th ...
Saturday, 30 November 19
IMO2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CUT: GERMAN SHIPPING TO USE NEW TYPE OF FUEL VDR SURVEY
IMO2020 Global sulphur cut: German shipping to use new type of fuel VDR survey: Technical issues and costs are the biggest challenges - VDR
&nb ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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