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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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