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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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