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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 11 September 19
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL HEAVILY IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the bel ...
Monday, 09 September 19
INDIAN COMPANIES READY TO INVEST IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COAL DEPOSITS IN RUSSIA'S YAKUTIA - TASS
Indian metallurgical companies, which received trial batches of coal from Kolmar mining company, are satisfied with the quality of the products and ...
Monday, 09 September 19
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2ND QUARTER - REUTERS
Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of coal, produced 18.9 million tonnes of the fuel in the second quarter, down 4.5% from the same ...
Monday, 09 September 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA A 58,000-TONNER FIXED DELIVERY FUZHOU, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,800
Capesize
0px The market reached new heights this week as the 5TC topped $38,014, a level not seen in the sector since 2013. Fridays 5TC closed ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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