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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
Sunday, 28 April 19
SUPRAMAX: A 54,000DWT VESSEL OPEN GRESIK FIXED VIA AUSTRALIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, IN THE MID $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Following the holidays, activity increased in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The 5TC average rallied, closing at $8,596, up $1, ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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