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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 17 April 19
LNG WESTERN AFRICA CONFERENCE 2019
The only LNG Focus Platform to Accelerate Investment and Cooperation in Western African Countries
LNG Western Africa Conference 2019 ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
IMO 2020 - DON'T SCRUB IT! - IVAR MYKLEBUST
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Höegh Autoliners stands firm on its decision not to implement scrubbers but comply with the IMO 2020 regulations by ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA IRON ORE CARGOES LIFTING FROM $4.60 PMT TO ABOVE $5.00 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market saw a steep ascent from the depths of last week. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC opened on Monday at $5,099, although b ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effecti ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OFFSHORE MENA CONGRESS 2019
Offshore MENA Congress 2019
Event Date : 11-12th Jun. 2019
Location : Cairo, Egypt
Offshore MENA Congress 2019 Offshor ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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