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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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