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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 18 December 18
TOBA BARA ACQUIRES SHARES OF PT BATU HITAM PERKASA
PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk, through its subsidiary PT Toba Bara Energi (“TBE”), has acquired shares ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SUPRAMAX THERE WAS STRONGER DEMAND FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA, WITH MORE COAL BEING SHIPPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a somewhat uncertain start as some gains made were eroded. Rates recovered later for West Australia/ ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD ISSUED A TENDER FOR MAX 3.220 MILLION TONS OF 4200 TO 5900 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) issued a tender for max 3,220,000 Metric Tons of coal to be loade ...
Saturday, 15 December 18
COMING CHANGES IN MARINE FUEL SULFUR LIMITS WILL AFFECT GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - EIA
International regulations limiting sulfur in fuels for ocean-going vessels, set to take effect in January 2020, have implications for vessel operat ...
Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,300 kcal/kg NCV coal per ...
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Showing 1526 to 1530 news of total 6871 |
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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