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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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