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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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