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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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