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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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