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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Sunday, 26 January 20
SHIPPING NEEDS TO PREPARE FOR CORONAVIRUS RESTRICTIONS WARNS HILL DICKINSON
The shipping industry needs to be prepared for potential restrictions in order to prevent the further spread of the ‘Wuhan’ coronavirus ...
Friday, 24 January 20
LOW-SULPHUR FUEL OIL PRICES DROP USD 99 PER MT IN SINGAPORE - BIMCO
Singapore has seen one of the largest drops in the price of Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO), which peaked on 7 January 2020 at USD 740 per metric ...
Friday, 24 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINED FLAT DURING THE PAST WEEK - XINHUA
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of coal prices in north China’s major ports, stood at 553 yuan (about 80.1 U.S. dollars) ...
Thursday, 23 January 20
PANAMAX: ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE PACIFIC BASIN - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
From bad to worse for the biggest ships as prices for low-sulphur fuel oil remain high whilst freight rates deteriorate further. Aver ...
Thursday, 23 January 20
AFRICAN POWER PLATFORM PUBLISHES REPORTS ON POWER SECTOR FRAMEWORK FOR SELECTED AFRICAN COUNTRIES
Press Release: African Power Platform publishes Reports on Power Sector Framework for selected African Countries
With the repo ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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