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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 01 February 20
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Saturday, 01 February 20
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Saturday, 01 February 20
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Friday, 31 January 20
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Thursday, 30 January 20
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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