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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 05 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - WATSON, FARLEY & WILLIAMS
The continued spread of Coronavirus and governmental measures to minimise the impact is likely to affect the shipping industry and supply chain.
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Wednesday, 05 February 20
INDONESIA'S COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP 1.46% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The oil and gas industry benefitted from a strong and solid ground in the previous year. We witnessed a slow but steady increase in bunker’s ...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
RUSSIA EXPORTED 28.6 MLN TONNES OF LNG IN 2019 - REFINITIV
A lot of attention has been paid recently on the surge in LNG exports from the United States. However, another country which is seeing truly expone ...
Tuesday, 04 February 20
CAPE: THE AVERAGE EARNINGS PER DAY FELL BENEATH THE USD 4,000, A LEVEL CONSIDERABLY BELOW EVEN THE MOST CONSERVATIVE OPEX LEVELS - ALLIED
The recent slump in the dry bulk freight market may well have been expected to some degree, but despite this the shock was still overwhelming when ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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