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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 03 February 20
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.46 MILLION TONS OF MIN.5700 AND MIN.5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,460,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
NOVEL CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN CHINA - STANDARD CLUB
Members will be aware of the recent novel coronavirus outbreak in China, which has now been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organis ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP TO INDIA, AT $6,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The week proved conspicuous for all the wrong reasons. This was the week when the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) turned negative, closing ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
50 MILLION PEOPLE QUARANTINED IN CHINA TO CONTAIN SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS - HOW DOES IT AFFECT SHIPPING? - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, declared a global health emergency by the WHO, has caused massive uncertainty across the global markets with ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
THERMAL COAL MARKETS: 5 TRENDS TO WATCH OUT FOR IN 2020 - MINING REVIEW
The seaborne thermal coal market entered the year challenged by low priced LNG in the Atlantic and rapidly increasing supply in the Pacific.
&n ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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